One bet, placed as a habit
A match's odds also tell you each outcome's chance, once the margin is taken out. In the example, a home win at 2.10 comes in about 45.4% of the time. Bet €10.00 on it 2 times a week for 5 years and you lose €239 on average, and only 16.1% of the people who do it end ahead.
How this works
- What it does
- One bet on one match, placed again and again. The odds of every outcome tell you your bet's real chance once the bookmaker's cut is taken out; this shows that chance, what each bet loses on average, and how many of the people who keep betting like this end ahead.
- How to use it
- Type the odds of every outcome of the match, one box each, and tick the one you bet on. Then the stake, how many times a week and for how many years.
- How to read the result
- "Wins about 45% of the time" is your real chance. "Of everyone who bets like this" counts every possible run of luck exactly: the share ahead at the end shrinks the longer the habit lasts.
Type in the odds
The figures shown are an example we typed, not any bookmaker's odds. Type your own over them. Decimals may be written with a point or a comma.
Type one odds in each box, each above 1, pick your bet, and check the stake, the times a week and the years (up to 60).
These odds add up to less than 100%, so an outcome of the match is missing. Type every outcome, the draw for example.
Your bet wins about 45.4% of the time (1 in 2.2). Its odds of 2.10 would be fair for a chance of 47.6%.
Every bet loses 4.6% on average: €0.46 on a stake of €10.00.
At 2 a week for 5 years: 520 bets and €5,200 staked. On average you lose €239 in all, €48 a year, and about 236 of the bets win.
Of everyone who bets like this, 16.1% end ahead. The typical one ends at -€244; 1 in 10 ends at -€538 or worse, and 1 in 10 at +€71 or better.
The calculation runs in your browser and needs JavaScript. The figures here are the example's.
How it is worked out
Your bet's real chance comes from the odds of every outcome, with the margin taken out in proportion. Each bet is independent, so the number of wins over many bets follows the binomial distribution: from it comes exactly how many of the people who bet like this end ahead, with no simulation.
A second, independent calculation must give the same figures, or the page is not published.
What this leaves out
- It does not say who will win. Every result is measured at the market's own chances, with the margin taken out.
- Tax on winnings and any charges.