Is a Mega Millions play worth $5?
At the smallest jackpot, $50 million, a $5 play pays back $1.29 on average: you lose $74.19 of every $100. Type in this draw's jackpot below.
What a play pays back
Type a jackpot of 0 or more, and the plays in the draw, or leave that empty.
A $5 play pays back $1.29 on average.
You lose $74.19 of every $100 you spend.
$0.172 of that comes from the jackpot and $1.12 from the other prizes.
With that many plays, a jackpot winner can expect to share it: on average a winner keeps 100%.
At this jackpot, a play is worth less than its price.
At this jackpot the average payback is above the price, before tax. That average rests on a 1 in 290,472,336 chance: almost every play still loses its whole price.
A play pays back its price on average only once the jackpot reaches about $1.13 billion, before tax.
What each prize adds to a play
| Numbers matched | Chance | Prize | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 + Mega Ball | 1 in 290,472,336 | $50 million | $0.172 |
| 5 | 1 in 12,629,232 | about $3,000,000 | $0.238 |
| 4 + Mega Ball | 1 in 893,761 | about $30,000 | $0.034 |
| 4 | 1 in 38,859 | about $1,500 | $0.039 |
| 3 + Mega Ball | 1 in 13,965 | about $600 | $0.043 |
| 3 | 1 in 607 | about $30 | $0.049 |
| 2 + Mega Ball | 1 in 665 | about $30 | $0.045 |
| 1 + Mega Ball | 1 in 85.81 | about $21 | $0.245 |
| Mega Ball only | 1 in 35.17 | about $15 | $0.427 |
| Average payback | $1.29 |
Prizes marked "about" are at the average multiplier, worked out from its published odds.
The jackpot line allows for sharing with other winners when you give the plays in the draw.
How it is worked out
A play's average payback is the sum, over every prize, of its chance times its amount. The table above does exactly that, line by line.
When more than one play wins the jackpot, the winners share it. If a draw sells T plays, the number of other winners is very close to a Poisson count with an average of λ = T × the jackpot chance, and a winner keeps on average (1 − e−λ) ÷ λ of the jackpot.
The break-even jackpot is the one at which the average payback equals the price of a play.
What this leaves out
- Tax: every figure is before any tax on winnings.
- Time: a prize paid in instalments counts at its full face value here.
- Your one play: an average says nothing about a single play. The chance of any prize is 1 in 23.07, so most plays win nothing.
Sources
The chances are those of the odds page, checked the same way. Prizes and sales were read from these pages:
- Mega Millions, how to play, checked 3 November 2026
- Mega Millions game rules, Iowa Lottery, checked 3 November 2026
- Mega Millions questions and answers, with the starting jackpot, checked 6 November 2026
Mega Millions® is run by a group of US state lotteries. TrainYourOdds is independent and not connected with any lottery operator.