We simulated 10 million lottery players: here is what happened to them
· Every figure is worked out from the game's rules.
We had 10,000,000 players in each of three lotteries buy one play in every draw for 20 years. None of them picked "lucky" numbers, none stopped, none changed their habit. This is what happened to them.
Powerball
- Each spent$6,240
- The typical player-$5,690
- Ended ahead0.37%
- Were ever ahead5.7%
The table
| Result | Players | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Lost 90% or more | 8,183,502 | 81.8% |
| Lost 75% to 90% | 1,779,990 | 17.8% |
| Lost 50% to 75% | 0 | 0% |
| Lost less than half | 0 | 0% |
| Ended ahead | 36,508 | 0.37% |
3,120 draws at $2 each. 99 in 100 ended at -$5,449 or worse; the luckiest of all ended at +$20,044,315. 100 of the 10,000,000 won a jackpot. The average, -$5,044, is better than the typical player, because a few large wins pull it up; almost nobody lives it.
EuroMillions
- Each spent€5,200
- The typical player-€4,417
- Ended ahead0.1%
- Were ever ahead10%
The table
| Result | Players | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Lost 90% or more | 41 | 0.00041% |
| Lost 75% to 90% | 9,956,750 | 99.6% |
| Lost 50% to 75% | 33,192 | 0.33% |
| Lost less than half | 50 | 0.0005% |
| Ended ahead | 9,967 | 0.1% |
2,080 draws at €2.50 each. 99 in 100 ended at -€4,196 or worse; the luckiest of all ended at +€15,836,096. 144 of the 10,000,000 won a jackpot. The average, -€3,997, is better than the typical player, because a few large wins pull it up; almost nobody lives it.
Tzoker
- Each spent€3,120
- The typical player-€2,661
- Ended ahead0.33%
- Were ever ahead8.2%
The table
| Result | Players | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Lost 90% or more | 136 | 0.0014% |
| Lost 75% to 90% | 9,722,749 | 97.2% |
| Lost 50% to 75% | 1,292 | 0.013% |
| Lost less than half | 242,672 | 2.4% |
| Ended ahead | 33,151 | 0.33% |
3,120 draws at €1 each. 99 in 100 ended at -€125 or worse; the luckiest of all ended at +€1,956,876. 1,277 of the 10,000,000 won a jackpot. The average, -€2,227, is better than the typical player, because a few large wins pull it up; almost nobody lives it.
What it means
A lottery habit is not an investment that can go well or badly. It is a steady cost with a small chance of a surprise. Even counting any moment in 20 years, only 5.7% to 10% of players were ever ahead, and far fewer stayed there. See what your own habit costs with the lifetime bill, or run your own simulation.
How it was done
Every play was drawn at the exact chance of each prize tier, by the site's maths engine. The jackpot was counted at its smallest amount, shared as much as expected at the usual sales, as on the "is it worth it?" pages. Players ran in groups of 100,000, each with its own seed (trainyourodds-10-million), so any group can be run again and gives exactly the same result. Before the page is published, the first group of each lottery is run again, and the average of the 10 million is checked against the exact expected loss.
The simulation ran on 7 November 2026, with each game's rules, price and sales as they were then. If a game changes later, its own page shows the new figures; this study stays as it was run.