How big a jackpot has to be before a ticket is worth it
· Every figure is worked out from the game's rules.
A play pays back, on average, its small prizes plus the jackpot times its chance. As the jackpot grows, so does that average. So there is a jackpot at which a play pays back its price on average: the break-even jackpot.
For every lottery
| Game | Break-even jackpot | Jackpot cap | Pays back at the smallest jackpot |
|---|---|---|---|
| Irish Lotto €2 | €14 million | €16 million | 28.3% |
| Tzoker €1 | €18.8 million | – | 28.7% |
| UK Lotto £2 | £28.6 million | – | 38.7% |
| Lotto 6aus49 €1.20 | €111 million | – | 41.9%* |
| Eurojackpot €2 | €163 million (above the cap) | €120 million | 48.7% |
| EuroMillions €2.50 | €305 million (above the cap) | €250 million | 23.3% |
| SuperEnalotto €1 | €384 million | – | 38.8%* |
| Powerball $2 | $491 million | – | 19.4% |
| Mega Millions $5 | $1.13 billion | – | 25.8% |
* Lotto 6aus49 publishes no smallest jackpot; €1 million is assumed here.
* SuperEnalotto publishes no smallest jackpot; €1 million is assumed here.
Before tax, at a draw's usual sales. The nearest break-even jackpot is Irish Lotto's, €14 million. In Eurojackpot and EuroMillions the jackpot stops growing before it gets there, so a play never pays back its price on average.
In Greek Lotto (50.4%) and Extra 5 (55.8%) every prize is fixed, so the payback never changes.
Why even then it is not a bargain
- You share. The table allows for the jackpot being shared, at the usual sales. But when the jackpot is large, far more people play, and the share you can expect shrinks.
- Tax. A large prize is taxed, and the tax raises the break-even jackpot. For Greece, see the tax on winnings.
- An average is not a play. Even when the average breaks even, almost every play loses its whole price: the average rests on a jackpot chance of one in millions.
How it is worked out
For each prize tier, its chance times its amount; for the jackpot, also how much it is expected to be shared. The break-even jackpot is the one at which the total equals the price of a play. On each game's "is it worth it?" page you can type in the day's jackpot and sales.