How unlikely a jackpot is
"1 in 292,201,338" says very little. Here each lottery's top prize sits beside things you can picture: heads in a row, sixes, a royal flush, a lightning strike. Powerball, for one, is 239 times less likely than being struck by lightning in a given year.
How this works
- What it does
- This page puts the top prize of every lottery beside chances you can picture: heads in a row, dice all showing six, a royal flush, being struck by lightning in a year.
- How to use it
- Nothing to type. Find a lottery in the table and read across.
- How to read the result
- Each column is another way of saying the same chance. "N times less likely than lightning" means that for every jackpot you would expect about N lightning strikes.
Every lottery
| Lottery | Top prize | Heads in a row | Dice, all sixes | Against a royal flush | Against lightning in a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extra 5 | 1 in 324,632 | 18 | 7 | 2 times more likely | 3.8 times more likely |
| Irish Lotto | 1 in 8,145,060 | 23 | 9 | 13 times less likely | 6.7 times less likely |
| Greek Lotto | 1 in 13,983,816 | 24 | 9 | 22 times less likely | 11 times less likely |
| UK Lotto | 1 in 22,528,737 | 24 | 9 | 35 times less likely | 18 times less likely |
| Tzoker | 1 in 24,435,180 | 25 | 9 | 38 times less likely | 20 times less likely |
| EuroMillions | 1 in 139,838,160 | 27 | 10 | 215 times less likely | 114 times less likely |
| Eurojackpot | 1 in 139,838,160 | 27 | 10 | 215 times less likely | 114 times less likely |
| Lotto 6aus49 | 1 in 139,838,160 | 27 | 10 | 215 times less likely | 114 times less likely |
| Mega Millions | 1 in 290,472,336 | 28 | 11 | 447 times less likely | 238 times less likely |
| Powerball | 1 in 292,201,338 | 28 | 11 | 450 times less likely | 239 times less likely |
| SuperEnalotto | 1 in 622,614,630 | 29 | 11 | 958 times less likely | 510 times less likely |
With one play, highest chance first. Heads and dice are the nearest whole number.
Where the figures come from
Heads k times in a row with a fair coin: 1 in 2k. Six on every one of k dice: 1 in 6k. A royal flush in the first five cards of a 52-card deck: 4 of the 2,598,960 possible hands, so 1 in 649,740. These are counted exactly.
Lightning is the US National Weather Service's figure: 1 in 1,222,000 in a given year and 1 in 15,300 over an 80-year life, from US averages for 2009 to 2018: deaths and estimated injuries, against a population of 330 million. The weekly check reads its page again and marks these pages if the figure changes.
- How Dangerous is Lightning?, US National Weather Service, checked 8 November 2026