Is a SuperEnalotto play worth €1?
At an assumed starting jackpot of €1 million, a €1 play pays back €0.388 on average: you lose €61.17 of every €100. Type in this draw's jackpot below.
What a play pays back
Type a jackpot of 0 or more, and the plays in the draw, or leave that empty.
A €1 play pays back €0.388 on average.
You lose €61.17 of every €100 you spend.
€0.002 of that comes from the jackpot and €0.387 from the other prizes.
With that many plays, a jackpot winner can expect to share it: on average a winner keeps 99%.
At this jackpot, a play is worth less than its price.
At this jackpot the average payback is above the price, before tax. That average rests on a 1 in 622,614,630 chance: almost every play still loses its whole price.
A play pays back its price on average only once the jackpot reaches about €384 million, before tax.
What each prize adds to a play
| Numbers matched | Chance | Prize | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 1 in 622,614,630 | €1 million | €0.002 |
| 5 + Jolly | 1 in 103,769,105 | about €491,321.26 | €0.005 |
| 5 | 1 in 1,250,230 | about €29,240.58 | €0.023 |
| 4 | 1 in 11,907 | about €396.96 | €0.033 |
| 3 | 1 in 327 | about €26.67 | €0.082 |
| 2 | 1 in 21.51 | about €5.24 | €0.244 |
| Average payback | €0.388 |
Prizes marked "about" are shares of a prize fund: these are the amounts recent draws paid (in the sources below), and they change every draw. The prizes for 5, 4, 3 and 2 numbers are the average paid to each winner in the seven draws from 27 October to 6 November 2026, from ADM's official bulletins. Nobody matched 5 + Jolly in those draws: its figure is the 13.00% of the average prize fund that one winner would take. ADM publishes no starting jackpot, so the €1 million is an assumption.
The jackpot line allows for sharing with other winners when you give the plays in the draw.
How it is worked out
A play's average payback is the sum, over every prize, of its chance times its amount. The table above does exactly that, line by line.
When more than one play wins the jackpot, the winners share it. If a draw sells T plays, the number of other winners is very close to a Poisson count with an average of λ = T × the jackpot chance, and a winner keeps on average (1 − e−λ) ÷ λ of the jackpot.
The break-even jackpot is the one at which the average payback equals the price of a play.
What this leaves out
- Tax: every figure is before any tax on winnings.
- Time: a prize paid in instalments counts at its full face value here.
- Your one play: an average says nothing about a single play. The chance of any prize is 1 in 20.15, so most plays win nothing.
Sources
The chances are those of the odds page, checked the same way. Prizes and sales were read from these pages:
- SuperEnalotto: chances of winning, ADM (Italian customs and monopolies agency), checked 7 November 2026
- SuperEnalotto: how to play, ADM, checked 7 November 2026
- SuperEnalotto and SuperStar rules, decree 109175 of 16 November 2015, ADM, checked 7 November 2026
- SuperEnalotto official bulletins, ADM: prize fund, winners and prize of each category, draws of 27 October to 6 November 2026, checked 7 November 2026
SuperEnalotto is run by Sisal under a concession from ADM, the Italian customs and monopolies agency. TrainYourOdds is independent and not connected with any lottery operator.