Is an Irish Lotto play worth €2?
At the smallest jackpot, €2 million, a €2 play pays back €0.567 on average: you lose €71.66 of every €100. Type in this draw's jackpot below.
What a play pays back
Type a jackpot of 0 or more, and the plays in the draw, or leave that empty.
A €2 play pays back €0.567 on average.
You lose €71.66 of every €100 you spend.
€0.238 of that comes from the jackpot and €0.329 from the other prizes.
With that many plays, a jackpot winner can expect to share it: on average a winner keeps 97%.
At this jackpot, a play is worth less than its price.
At this jackpot the average payback is above the price, before tax. That average rests on a 1 in 8,145,060 chance: almost every play still loses its whole price.
A play pays back its price on average only once the jackpot reaches about €14 million, before tax.
The jackpot is capped at €16 million, and a play would pay back its price on average only at about €14 million. So at any jackpot, a play pays back less than it costs.
What each prize adds to a play
| Numbers matched | Chance | Prize | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 1 in 8,145,060 | €2 million | €0.238 |
| 5 + Bonus | 1 in 1,357,510 | about €75,000 | €0.055 |
| 5 | 1 in 35,724 | about €1,200 | €0.034 |
| 4 + Bonus | 1 in 14,290 | about €120 | €0.008 |
| 4 | 1 in 772 | about €40 | €0.052 |
| 3 + Bonus | 1 in 579 | about €20 | €0.035 |
| 2 + Bonus | 1 in 64.37 | €4 | €0.062 |
| 3 | 1 in 48.28 | €4 | €0.083 |
| Average payback | €0.567 |
Prizes marked "about" are shares of a prize fund: these are the amounts recent draws paid (in the sources below), and they change every draw.
The jackpot line allows for sharing with other winners when you give the plays in the draw.
How it is worked out
A play's average payback is the sum, over every prize, of its chance times its amount. The table above does exactly that, line by line.
When more than one play wins the jackpot, the winners share it. If a draw sells T plays, the number of other winners is very close to a Poisson count with an average of λ = T × the jackpot chance, and a winner keeps on average (1 − e−λ) ÷ λ of the jackpot.
The break-even jackpot is the one at which the average payback equals the price of a play.
What this leaves out
- Tax: every figure is before any tax on winnings.
- Time: a prize paid in instalments counts at its full face value here.
- Your one play: an average says nothing about a single play. The chance of any prize is 1 in 25.40, so most plays win nothing.
Sources
The chances are those of the odds page, checked the same way. Prizes and sales were read from these pages:
- How to play Lotto: prizes and odds, the National Lottery (Ireland), checked 7 November 2026
- Lotto 6/45 Rules, Issue 10 (September 2026), Premier Lotteries Ireland, checked 7 November 2026
- First draw of the new Lotto and the Monday draw, the National Lottery (Ireland), checked 7 November 2026
- Lotto results, the National Lottery (Ireland): winners of each tier, checked 7 November 2026
The Irish National Lottery is run by Premier Lotteries Ireland under licence from the Regulator of the National Lottery. TrainYourOdds is independent and not connected with any lottery operator.